Solar to be the cheapest source of electricity in most of the world by 2027
from CCL Community
EcoTech Note: Here’s a great example of a learning curve in action — and real world impacts as it reduces the Green Premium to zero in 2027. It underscores the importance of non-economic factors like permitting reform, PUC processes and the capital cost of the the new equipment.
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
by Dana Nuccitelli, 9/3/24
I just came across this interesting paper, although it was published last October. The authors performed model projections of the cheapest source of electricity in every country over the coming years, including ‘system storage cost (SSC)’, which is basically battery storage, if needed. Right now it’s mostly a mix of wind and solar (although interestingly, in Russia it’s nuclear power), but by 2027 the falling costs of solar + battery storage are expected to become the cheapest source almost everywhere
They also project the share of renewables and solar-only in each country over time:
The US is right around the global average, at 50% renewables (including hydropower) by 2030. Although we’re expected to have a mix of about 30% solar and 20% other, compared to the 25%/25% split globally by 2030.
They also project solar to reach 35% in China and 40% in India by 2030. I sure hope that’s true, and it might be plausible in China, but while solar is growing pretty fast in India, it’s hard to see it growing that fast. I’m also assuming this figure refers to power capacity and not generation; generation numbers are lower for renewables because of their variability due to weather. But still, it’s pretty interesting and encouraging.