Economics

solar panels

America’s Struggling Solar Industry Has a New Comeback Plan

FSLR is the country’s only major U.S. solar manufacturer. The Inflation Reduction Act has begun to change the industry’s fortunes. The 2022 law added tax credits for domestic manufacturing, compelling several companies to announce plans to build factories. Still, it has been slow-going.

Chinese companies have ramped up production and driven prices relentlessly lower, making it difficult for American firms to catch up. FREYR will get its polysilicon from both the U.S. and Asia, and its solar cells from Asia. It’s exploring whether to build another factory for cells in the U.S.

So far, the U.S. has tried to keep Chinese panels out by ramping up tariffs or outright banning panels. Chinese companies still want access to the U.S. market, so they have begun to build factories in the U.S. The Inflation Reduction Act allows companies based in foreign countries to qualify for tax credits as long as they set up shop in the U.S.

Solar balconies are the equivalent of puppy pictures
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Solar balconies are the equivalent of puppy pictures

Editor’s Note: Bill McKibbin’s newsletter today reports on a trend in Europe — to add standalone solar panels on your balcony and simply plug it into your house, no electrician needed.  It costs about $500 and pays for itself in reduced electricity bills quickly.  And yet, it’s not really available in the US, because “installing solar in the U.S. requires complying with an insane welter of state and local regulations. This is a huge problem for rooftop solar—it costs about $3.50 a watt to put up a system in America, compared with under a dollar in Australia or most of Europe, simply because of the paperwork and permitting.”

Is this another opportunity for bipartisan permitting reform?

Google Backs New Nuclear Plants to Power AI
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Google Backs New Nuclear Plants to Power AI

EcoTech Note:  Here’s the clearest statement of the important of having “learning curve” improvements in price/performance reduce the cost of this new design:
“The [power purchase agreement by Google] answers questions that have bedeviled smaller-reactor designs: What customer would pay the higher price for a first-of-a-kind project? And who would order enough to get an assembly line started? The concept, which remains to be proven, is that building the same thing over and over in a factory would drive down costs.

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McKinsey: Why Only Climate Tech Can Help Avoid Catastrophe

McKinsey: Why Only Climate Tech Can Help Avoid Catastrophe

EcoTech Note:  McKinsey, the premiere corporate strategy consulting firm, explicitly talked about increasing the speed and scale of the CleanTech transition such that Learning Curve cost reductions get the Green Premium down toward zero.

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McKinsey studied the growth of an earlier generation of climate technologies to divine a roadmap for more nascent tech to become cost competitive with fossil-fuel. McKinsey found that every 100% increase in deployment can yield at least 70% of cost reductions. Patel said this relationship is predictable and should give investors confidence that rapid scaling will lead to disproportionate cost cuts and unlock faster adoption.

“It’s intuitive that the more scale, the lower the unit cost should become, but in climate tech we have the challenge of promising technologies that didn’t get beyond first-of-a-kind operations and didn’t reach a unit cost near parity with the fossil alternative,” Patel said.

U.S. Approves Billions in Aid to Restart Michigan Nuclear Plant
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U.S. Approves Billions in Aid to Restart Michigan Nuclear Plant

EcoTech Note:  Here’s an example of a subsidy operating on the supply side of a market.  The federal guarantee on an otherwise private loan makes it less risky  … so the interest rate will be lower …. which makes the final cost of the electricity from this nuclear plant cheaper.  The direct GRANT also radically lowers the cost of using the plant to generate electricity.

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The Energy Department said on Monday that it had finalized a $1.52 billion loan guarantee to help a company restart a shuttered nuclear plant in Michigan — the latest sign of rising government support for nuclear power.

Two rural electricity providers that planned to buy power from the reactor would also receive $1.3 billion in federal grants under a program approved by Congress to help rural communities tackle climate change.

Microsoft may pay a premium in Three Mile Island power agreement
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Microsoft may pay a premium in Three Mile Island power agreement

EcoTech Note:  Here is a great example of a “Green Premium” being paid by a company desperate for clean power a) to meet their need to power a data center and b) to meet their “net-zero by 2035” commitment:

“Jefferies estimated that Microsoft might pay Constellation about $110-$115 per megawatt hour (MWh) as part of the 20-year-long fixed price PPA.  The brokerage’s analysts said the estimated cost represents a significant premium to market expectations, which are in the low $100 per MWh for a collocated deal.”

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‘Three New York Cities’ Worth of Power: AI Is Stressing the Grid
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‘Three New York Cities’ Worth of Power: AI Is Stressing the Grid

EcoTech Note:  When demand surges far ahead of supply, the market adjusts either by raising prices or by rationing supply, e.g, by allocations or waiting lists.. The recent surge in demand for electricity is driven by AI, EVs, data centers, etc. This article quantifies the demand and the backlogs, now stretching into the 2030s.

This problem does create some good news though: first, businesses will press for permitting reform to speed up access to more electricity. Second, creditworthy corporations like Microsoft and Google are entering into power purchase agreements to help new clean energy generators get financed and built, even paying a “Green Premium” e.g., Microsoft reopening Three Mile Island and Google backing Fervo’s geothermal plant in northern Nevada.

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Google funds clean energy with upfront capital and “offtake agreements.”
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Google funds clean energy with upfront capital and “offtake agreements.”

EcoTech Note:  Here’s an example of a corporation meeting its commitment to using only “carbon free energy” by supporting new CleanTech generation facilities with upfront investment and an “offtake agreement” — which is a long term contract to buy the electricity created at a pre-set price that allows the investment to be profitable.  #Green_Premium #learning_curve

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In order to help overcome these challenges, and deliver 24/7 carbon-free energy onto the grid where these data centers operate, we’ve worked with Energix Renewables on an investment framework that allows us to invest in, and buy power from, a 1.5 gigawatt (GW) portfolio of new solar projects throughout the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) grid over the next three years. By providing both investment capital and energy offtake, these projects have a clearer path to construction, bringing the planned construction start of 150 MW of queue backlog from 2025 ahead to 2024.

Solar to be the cheapest source of electricity in most of the world by 2027

Solar to be the cheapest source of electricity in most of the world by 2027

EcoTech Note:  Here’s a great example of a learning curve in action — and real world impacts as it reduces the Green Premium to zero in 2027.  It underscores the importance of non-economic factors like permitting reform, PUC processes and the capital cost of the the new equipment.

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by Dana Nuccitelli, 9/3/24

I just came across this interesting paper, although it was published last October. The authors performed model projections of the cheapest source of electricity in every country over the coming years, including ‘system storage cost (SSC)’, which is basically battery storage, if needed. Right now it’s mostly a mix of wind and solar (although interestingly, in Russia it’s nuclear power), but by 2027 the falling costs of solar + battery storage are expected to become the cheapest source almost everywhere.

Long-Range EVs Now Cost Less Than the Average New Car in the US
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Long-Range EVs Now Cost Less Than the Average New Car in the US

EcoTech Note:   EVs  reduced the Green Premium to zero in terms of operating costs and total costs of ownership a couple years ago.  Now they have even achieved price parity on the upfront capital costs. 

The other, non-economic frictions are still there: lack of charging infrastructure, long charging times, range anxiety, and unfamiliarity.  But if economics = destiny, watch EV sales in the US take off.

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At least three manufacturers — Tesla, Hyundai-Kia and General Motors — now offer EVs with more than 300 miles (480 kilometers) of range for less than the cost of the average new vehicle sold in the US, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Green. The most affordable is Hyundai’s 2024 Ioniq 6, which comes with 361 miles of range and a price tag that’s 25% below the national average of roughly $47,000.

Turbine Blades Have Piled Up in Landfills. A Solution May Be Coming.

Turbine Blades Have Piled Up in Landfills. A Solution May Be Coming.

EcoTech Note:  Here’s a good microeconomics case.  These recyclable wind turbine blades are “3 to 8 percent more expensive than traditional blades.” When retired, they can avoid being tossed into a landfill and be melted (at about 440º F) into an elastic liquid that can be molded into a new shape.

If the Green Premium is calculated on the “total cost of ownership,” the higher upfront cost will be offset by avoided landfill costs and the profit on the sale of the products created from the recycled wind turbine blade.

The blades on the newest wind turbines sweep an area longer than a football field and are nearly impossible to recycle.

At the end of their life span of around 20 years, they are chopped into pieces and buried in a handful of landfills across the Great Plains. But this waste problem from a growing source of low carbon energy could become a headache of the past.

Don’t blame clean energy for rising electric bills

Don’t blame clean energy for rising electric bills

Rising electricity costs are putting American households under increasing financial stress. But clean energy isn’t to blame — even if Republican lawmakers and pro-fossil fuel advocates say otherwise.  :See example.

The real drivers of climbing electricity rates are spikes in fossil gas prices, rising costs to maintain and rebuild aging and stressed grid infrastructure, and a utility business model that incentivizes big capital investments that customers have to pay off over decades.

That’s the conclusion of a new report from think tank Energy Innovation, which takes on one of the favorite talking points of those striving to reverse renewable energy mandates and climate change policies across the country.