U.S. emissions and coal generation increased last year, analysis finds

from Climate 202 Newsletter, WaPo

by Maxine Joselow

Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States surged last year, putting the nation further off track from meeting President Biden‘s ambitious climate targets, your Climate 202 host and The Washington Post’s Brady Dennis reported this morning.

The sobering analysis from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, found that U.S. emissions rose 6.2 percent last year compared to 2020, although they remained below pre-pandemic levels. One main reason: a 17 percent jump in the burning of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, marking the first annual increase in the nation’s coal generation since 2014.

The analysis demonstrates that the United States is not emerging from the coronavirus pandemic with a greener economy, making it even harder for Biden to deliver on his pledge to reduce emissions 50 to 52 percent by 2030, according to the authors.

“In an ideal world, we want the economy to rebound, but not the emissions,” said Kate Larsen, a co-author of the analysis who leads Rhodium’s international energy and climate research.

Here are our main takeaways from the Rhodium report:

Coal’s surge last year was an ‘anomaly’

If you follow climate and energy policy, you’re probably aware that coal power is on the decline in the United States, nudged out by abundant natural gas and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

That’s still the case. 2021 was an outlier because of unusually high natural gas prices, as producers curbed output in response to lower global demand caused by pandemic shutdowns.

The surge in coal-fired electricity last year was an “anomaly” and was “almost entirely due to high natural gas prices,” Larsen said. “Emissions from our power sector were pretty much at the whim of energy markets.”

Corinne Le Quéré, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia who was not involved with the Rhodium report, agreed with that assessment.

“Clearly, coal use in the U.S. in the long term is going down,” she said. “The coal power stations are very old, and it would cost a lot of money to invest in them to put them up to shape. And that’s not the direction of travel because of climate policies.”

The Manchin connection: The continued decline of coal has been a source of concern for Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who has family ties to the coal industry — and who said in late December that he could not support Democrats’ sweeping climate and social spending bill.

Transportation emissions are rising, threatening Biden’s EV goals

The analysis found that the biggest increase in emissions in 2021 came from the transportation sector, which looms as the country’s largest source of greenhouse gases, accounting for 31 percent of all carbon pollution.

The authors attributed the increase to a resurgence of road freight, as thousands of diesel-powered trucks rumbled along the nation’s highways to deliver consumer goods, as well as a modest recovery in passenger travel.

At the onset of the pandemic in 2020, many Americans began driving less as they worked remotely and large swaths of the economy shut down. But after the arrival of coronavirus vaccines and the lifting of some pandemic restrictions, more Americans took to the roads last year.

To make a meaningful dent in transportation emissions, experts say that more drivers will need to replace their gas-powered cars with electric vehicles — in addition to ditching cars altogether for biking, walking and public transit. But EV sales only accounted for about 4 percent of U.S. car sales in 2021 — a far cry from Biden’s goal of EV sales making up 50 percent of new car sales by the end of this decade.

“When you park your car in the driveway for a year, it’s still the same polluting vehicle when you turn it back on,” said Rob Jackson, a professor at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project.

“So when vehicle miles return to normal, which they haven’t quite done yet for the United States,” he said, “transportation emissions will be just the size they were before unless we’re able to swap out those vehicles for electric or other technologies.”